The Modelling of the American Collectable Comic Book Market: Technical Report UG-M-09-6

The price history of an American collectable comic book is analysed into three markets, that of the new, the collectors' market, and the investors'. The latter two markets are identified through research into comic book availability and into the development of collecting from a hobby into a means of investment. Dynamic hypotheses are suggested and explored for the collectors’ and investors’ markets. The hypotheses are tested through the use of a comprehensive set of comic price data, gathered from both industry-recognised price guides and, for the period between comic publication and the emergence of recognised price data, first-hand dealer accounts and extensively researched dealer price lists. The model is used to examine the extent to which supply and demand predict comic value, and identifies factors other than supply and demand that are important determinants of comic value. The use of a system dynamics approach enables a model to be built which can incorporate the many factors identified and the complex influences between them.