The Global Energy Transition and Russian Structural Power: Scenarios and Strategic Options

The aim of this chapter is to unpack the geopolitical implications of the global energy transition for Russia. The analysis builds three scenarios for the advent of the global energy transition and discusses Russia’s strategic responses. It operationalizes a structural power framework to assess Russia’s ability to control its security, production, finance and knowledge structures in each of the three scenarios. In the first scenario, the advance of the global energy transition with Russia a passive bystander, the repercussions will be near catastrophic across all four realms. In the second scenario, technological innovations on fossil decarbonization, hydrogen or nuclear power allow Russia to maintain a dominant position in global energy markets and global politics, and ample control over the four aspects of structural power. In the third scenario, Russia embraces the clean energy economy. Its ability to control its security, finance, production and knowledge structures remains significant, but contingent on Russian competitive success in the global energy transition.