Introduction – The Demography-Security Nexus

In this paper we seek to define the effects of demography in its broadest sense on issues of national security, and to present a structured theoretical framework that can explain their mutual interactions and effects. The goal is to integrate the various interpretations presented in the articles of this special issue, which is devoted to demography and national security.

Israel is a unique and important test case for examining the interface between demography and national security, as a country that since its establishment has been strikingly demographically inferior to its environment, in a challenging and complex security situation, and subject to ongoing existential threats. Israel is a small nation state that survives in a situation of entrenched and ongoing ethnic-national-religious conflict with the Palestinians, while a consistently relatively large minority of some 20% of its citizens are identified as part of the Palestinian people, with whom Israel is in conflict.

We will explore the demographic impact on Israel’s national security through four main dimensions, which indicate the close links between demography and security (demography in Israel, demography between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean, demography within the regional context, and the demography of Diaspora Jewry). A theoretical model is also proposed, which apart from the explanation it provides for demographic impact (the independent variable), lays the foundation for further discussion of the possible effects of mediating variables on demography.