Defining a bearing replacement strategy using Monte Carlo methods

Andrew Thomas, J Chard, E John, A Davies, M Francis

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


    – The purpose of this paper is to propose a bearing replacement strategy which employs the Monte Carlo simulation method. In this contribution the method is used to estimate the economic impact on the selection of a particular bearing change strategy. The simulation demonstrates that it is possible to identify the most cost‐effective approach and thus suggests a suitable bearing replacement policy, which in turn allows engineers to develop the appropriate maintenance schedules for their company.

    – The paper develops the Monte Carlo method through a case study approach. Three case studies are presented. The first study is detailed and chronicles the design, development and implementation of the Monte Carlo method as a means of defining a bearing replacement strategy within a subject company. The second and third cases outline the application of the Monte Carlo method in two different environments. These applications made it possible to obtain proof of concept and also to further prove the effectiveness of the Monte Carlo simulation approach.

    – An effective development of the Monte Carlo approach is proposed and the effectiveness of the method is subsequently evaluated, highlighting the benefits to the host organization and how the approach led to significant improvement in machinery reliability through a bearing replacement strategy.

    Practical implications
    – The design, development and implementation of a bearing replacement strategy provide a simple yet effective approach to achieving significant improvements in system reliability and performance through less downtime and greater cost savings. The paper offers practising maintenance managers and engineers a strategic framework for increasing productive efficiency and output.

    – The proposed bearing replacement strategy contributes to the existing knowledge base on maintenance systems and subsequently disseminates this information in order to provide impetus, guidance and support towards increasing the development companies in an attempt to move the UK manufacturing sector towards world‐class manufacturing performance.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)155 - 168
    Number of pages13
    JournalInternational Journal of Quality and Reliability Management
    Issue number2
    Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2011


    • engine components


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