Containment vs. confrontation: Trump 2.0 and a nuclear Iran

While Iran is best thought of as a nuclear threshold state, Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign and threats of military intervention are more likely to escalate tensions than compel compliance. While military action against Iran’s nuclear facilities remains a possibility, such an attack could accelerate rather than curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Instead, a balanced diplomatic approach—one that addresses Iran’s security concerns—may be more effective than coercion alone in preventing nuclear proliferation and maintaining regional stability. Consequently, four scenarios are possible under Trump 2.0: regime change, prolonged stalemate, a new nuclear agreement, or military conflict.