Transcending energy transition complexities in building a carbon-neutral economy: The case of Nigeria

Nigeria seeks to transition to a low-carbon economy through the use of renewable energy resources and technologies. However, while some of the Nigerian government's recent policies have emphasized the need for the relative decoupling of energy systems in order to maximize renewable energy, others have concurrently bolstered fossil-fuel power generation as the country's energy system's centerpiece. This paper employs the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning Tool (LEAP) and the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) to evaluate Nigeria's progress toward a carbon-neutral economy. The findings indicate that the transformation to a low-carbon economy offers enormous opportunities for enhanced energy access and the future expansion of fossil fuel infrastructure. Nevertheless, institutional inertia and coordination lapses create barriers within the energy systems, while inconsistent policy priorities and political-economic calculations generate further bias in favor of the currently dominant oil- and gas-based development. Renewable energy will ensure Nigeria reduces its reliance on fossil fuels, but the transition will be fraught with formidable obstacles. Therefore, accelerating carbon neutralization necessitates a suite of energy mitigation pathways at scales that allow for the flexible integration of all energy systems, particularly modern bioenergy and natural gas.